Page not found – Windermere Real Estate https://lynlycallaway.com Windermere Real Estate Mon, 23 Jan 2023 20:51:59 +0000 en-US hourly 1 2023 Real Estate Forecast: Why This Market Won’t Be Like 2008 https://lynlycallaway.com/2023/01/23/2023-real-estate-forecast-why-this-market-wont-be-like-2008 https://lynlycallaway.com/2023/01/23/2023-real-estate-forecast-why-this-market-wont-be-like-2008#respond Mon, 23 Jan 2023 20:51:26 +0000 https://lynlycallaway.com/?p=28593 This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market. Hello there, I’m Windermere’s Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and welcome to the first episode […]

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This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.



Hello there, I’m Windermere’s Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner and welcome to the first episode of “Monday with Matthew” for 2023. As has become tradition, this first episode of the year will be dedicated to my real estate forecast for the U.S. housing market, so let’s get straight to it.

2023 Real Estate Forecast

Existing Home Sales & Forecast

From Matthew Gardner's 2023 real estate forecast, a bar graph showing the existing home sales for the years 2015 through 2021, plus forecasts for 2022 and 2023. The y-axis is in millions and the x-axis contains the years. The numbers are as follows (in millions): 5.3 in 2015, 5.5 in 2016 and 2017, 5.3 in 2018 and 2019, 5.6 in 2020, 6.1 in 2021, 5.1 (forecasted) in 2022, and 4.8 (forecasted) in 2023.

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

 

U.S. home sales trended lower through all of 2022 and, although I believe that sales will still have held above five million, this certainly won’t be the case in 2023. Affordability and higher financing costs will continue to act as headwinds when it comes to sales, but I think that the bigger issue will be that listing activity will not rise significantly as we move through the year.

As I have been saying for several months now, I don’t see why many households who don’t have to move will move and lose the historically low interest rate that they currently benefit from. That said, sales will still occur this year but at just 4.8 million, sales will be lower than we have seen since 2014.

Annual Change in Median Sale Prices

From Matthew Gardner's 2023 real estate forecast, a bar graph showing the annual change in median sale prices for homes in the U.S. real estate market. The years 2015 through 2023 are on the x-axis and percentages -4% through 20% run the length of the y-axis. The numbers are as follows: 6.8% in 2015, 5.1% in 2016, 5.7% in 2017, 4.9% in 2018 and 2019, 9.1% in 2020, 18.2% in 2021, 8.7% (forecasted) in 2022, and -1.1% (forecasted) in 2023.

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

 

Much has been said about the future of home prices, with some forecasters even suggesting that housing prices will collapse in a similar fashion to that seen following the bursting of the housing bubble back in 2008. Now, although price growth through the pandemic period was clearly excessive, fundamentally speaking, the two periods cannot be considered to be similar at all.

It’s my opinion that sale prices in 2023 will be very modestly lower than last year and I certainly don’t expect to see a collapse in home values.

But not all markets are created equal. The pandemic created what has become known as “Zoom-Towns.” These were cheap markets that affluent buyers flocked to because of their newly found ability to work from home and this led sale prices there to soar. It’s these locations that will likely see prices fall more significantly. Ultimately, expect to see prices fall through the first half of this year before starting to recover in the second half.

New Home Starts & Forecast (Single Family)

From Matthew Gardner's 2023 real estate forecast, a bar graph of the single-family new home starts. The y-axis shows numbers in thousands from 0 to 1,200 and the x-axis shows the years 2015 through 2023. The numbers are as follows: 715 in 2015, 782 in 2016, 849 in 2017, 876 in 2018, 888 in 2019, 991 in 2020, 1,127 in 2021, 1,009 (forecasted) in 2022, and 837 (forecasted) in 2023.

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

 

Looking now at the new construction market, housing starts fell last year as construction costs remained high and mortgage rates rose which lowered demand.  And I’m afraid that I do not see 2023 as being one where builders will deliver more inventory, with starts pulling back to a level the country hasn’t seen since 2016. That said, I am expecting a recovery in 2024 when new home starts will break back above the 1,000,000 level.

New Home Sales Forecast

From Matthew Gardner's 2023 real estate forecast, a bar graph showing the new home sales numbers from the U.S. housing market. The y-axis shows (in thousands) the numbers 200 to 900 and the x-axis shows the years 2015 through 2023. The number of new home sales are as follows (in thousands): 501 in 2015, 561 in 2016, 613 in 2017, 617 in 2018, 683 in 2019, 822 in 2020, 771 in 2021, 653 (forecasted) in 2022, and 584 (forecasted) in 2023.

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

 

New home sales in 2023 will fall further coming in below 600,000 but there is some light at the end of the tunnel with sales picking up fairly significantly again in 2024. We all understand that the country has a significant undersupply of ownership housing, but the costs associated with building new homes is still making it remarkably hard for builders even though they understand that demand will be significant for at least the next decade and a half given current demographics.

But the problem they will continue to face is that demand will primarily come from entry level buyers and, simply put, the cost to build a home precludes many developers from being able to meet this demand.

Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate & Forecast

A bar graph showing the average 30-year mortgage rate for the years 2015 through 2023. The y-axis shows percentages ranging from 0% to 7% and the years are displayed on the x-axis. The numbers are as follows: 3.9% in 2015, 3.7% in 2016, 4% in 2017, 4.5% in 2018, 3.9% in 2019, 3.1% in 2020, 3% in 2021, 5.4% in 2022, and 6.1% (forecasted) in 2023. This is the mortgage rate component of Matthew Gardner's 2023 real estate forecast.

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

 

And finally, my forecast for mortgage rates in 2023. Although this might not look good at all, as they say, “the devil is in the details.” Rates skyrocketed last year as the Fed stopped buying treasuries and mortgage-backed securities and, although they are off the highs we saw toward the end of last year, they are still significantly higher today than the market has become used to seeing.

As you can see here, I’m anticipating the average 30-year conventional rate to average 6.1% in 2023, but my forecast is actually a bit better than this shows.

Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate Forecast 2023

A bar graph showing the average 30-year mortgage rate in recent quarters, plus a forecast of the mortgage rate for each quarter in 2023. The y-axis displays percentages ranging from 0% to 7% and the x-axis displays the quarters from Q4 2021 to Q4 2023. The numbers are as follows: 3.1% in Q4 2021, 3.8% in Q1 2022, 5.3% in Q2 2022, 5.6% in Q3 2022, 6.8% in Q4 2022, 6.4% (forecasted) in Q1 2023, 6.1% (forecasted) in Q2 2023, 6% (forecasted) in Q3 2023, and 5.6% (forecasted) in Q4 2023. This is the mortgage rate component to Matthew Gardner's 2023 real estate forecast.

Image Source: Matthew Gardner

 

You see, my quarterly forecast suggests that rates have actually already peaked, and that they will trend lower as we move through this year and break below 6% by the fourth quarter. I would add that if anything my forecast may be a little pessimistic, and rates may end 2023 a little lower than I am showing here.

But that will depend on the Fed, and how long they will continue raising rates, and how long it will take before they start to lower them if the US enters a recession this year, which many forecasters including myself believe will be the case.

So, there you have it, my 2023 U.S. housing forecast. I will leave you with this one last thought. 2023 will be a transition year when the housing market will come off the “high” we saw during the pandemic and borrowing costs were artificially low.

I don’t see any reason for buyers or sellers to panic though. By the end of 2023, most markets will have corrected themselves and I believe we will see prices and demand start to pick up again toward the end of this year, but at a far more normalized pace.

As always, I look forward to your comments on my forecasts and I’ll see you all again next month. Take care now.

 


About Matthew Gardner

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

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Staying Safe When Selling Your Home https://lynlycallaway.com/2023/01/09/staying-safe-when-selling-your-home https://lynlycallaway.com/2023/01/09/staying-safe-when-selling-your-home#respond Mon, 09 Jan 2023 22:22:33 +0000 https://lynlycallaway.com/?p=28585 Staying organized while selling your home can feel impossible, especially if you’re buying a new home at the same time. There’s also the pressure to keep your home clean and tidy for showings to prospective buyers. In all the chaos, taking the proper safety precautions can fall by the wayside, but it is something that should […]

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Staying organized while selling your home can feel impossible, especially if you’re buying a new home at the same time. There’s also the pressure to keep your home clean and tidy for showings to prospective buyers. In all the chaos, taking the proper safety precautions can fall by the wayside, but it is something that should be prioritized. Keep these safety tips in mind as you work with your agent to sell your home.

We’ve assembled a comprehensive checklist of the common tasks required to get your home ready to sell. It is available as an interactive web page and downloadable PDF here:

How to Prepare for an Open House

Open houses are a major driver of buyer interest. Preparing for an open house is a matter of boosting curb appeal, cleaning, and staging to get your home in tip-top shape. It’s vital that you and your agent take certain safety precautions, given that you likely won’t be on sight when the open houses occur. Buyers often feel uneasy in the presence of the seller when touring a home. It also makes it more difficult for them to visualize the space as their own. Accordingly, it’s best to let your agent handle the open house. Here is a helpful list of how to prepare.

Staying Safe When Selling Your Home

  • Go through your medicine cabinets and remove all prescription medications.
  • Remove or lock up precious belongings and personal information. You will want to store your jewelry, family heirlooms, and personal/financial information in a secure location to keep them from getting misplaced or stolen.
  • It is best to remove all family photos during the staging process so potential buyers can see themselves living in the home; it’s also a good way to protect your privacy.
  • Check that your windows and doors are secure before and after showings. If an intruder is looking to get back into your home following a showing or an open house, they will look for weak locks or unlocked windows and doors.
  • Consider extra security measures such as an alarm system or other monitoring tools like home security cameras.

 

A real estate agent performs a walkthrough of a new home for a prospective buyer. The agent leads the buyer through the open kitchen/dining room area. The home has dark hardwood floors and geometric wallpaper along the kitchen island.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: ferrantraite

 

Talk to your agent about the following safety precautions:

  • Perform a thorough walk-through with your agent to make sure you have identified everything that needs to be removed or secured (medications, belongings, photos, etc.)
  • Go over your agent’s screening process so you are both on the same page about how to qualify buyers before showings.
  • Lockboxes to secure your keys for showings should be up to date. Electronic lockboxes track who has accessed your home.
  • Go through your home’s entrances and exits and share important household information so your agent can advise you on how to secure your property while it’s on the market.

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Homeownership Terms to Know: Rent-Back Agreement, Joint Tenancy & More https://lynlycallaway.com/2022/12/27/homeownership-terms-to-know-rent-back-agreement-joint-tenancy-more https://lynlycallaway.com/2022/12/27/homeownership-terms-to-know-rent-back-agreement-joint-tenancy-more#respond Tue, 27 Dec 2022 00:41:55 +0000 https://lynlycallaway.com/?p=28577 From the outside, buying a home may seem like a zero-sum game: the seller relinquishes ownership of a property to the buyer in exchange for money and the buyer becomes the property’s new outright owner. However, there’s more nuance to homeownership than meets the eye. The following homeownership agreements provide alternatives to a traditional home […]

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From the outside, buying a home may seem like a zero-sum game: the seller relinquishes ownership of a property to the buyer in exchange for money and the buyer becomes the property’s new outright owner. However, there’s more nuance to homeownership than meets the eye. The following homeownership agreements provide alternatives to a traditional home purchase. These options may be right for you when searching for your next home.

Homeownership Terms to Know

Rent-Back Agreement

A rent-back agreement (also known as a sale lease-back) is tailor-made for homeowners who are buying a home while selling their current one. Buying a home and selling a home are both significant undertakings in their own right, but when combined, everything is heightened. For all your planning, successfully executing both transactions is predicated on a variety of factors, including the local market conditions in both places.

A rent-back agreement is a clause in the sales contract that allows the seller to rent their old home from the buyer for an agreed-upon period of time before the buyer moves in. The agreement will include the length of the rental period and the seller’s rental costs, while spelling out the responsibilities of each party during the transition.

These agreements are mutually beneficial to buyers and sellers. Not only do sellers buy themselves time to find their new home, they collect proceeds from the sale of their current one, which can be used to help fund their new home purchase when the time comes. The money collected from sellers’ rent payments is an obvious bonus for buyers. And in a competitive market, making an offer that gives the seller flexibility in their moving timeline may help it stand out amongst the competition.

 

A real estate agent tours a home with two buyers. They have a brief meeting in the living room where the agent shows them paperwork for the home purchase.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: FG Trade

 

Joint Tenancy

When two or more people purchase a property together, Joint Tenancy with Right of Survivorship (JTWROS) requires that all co-buyers hold an equal interest in the property and that they all come into ownership through the same title at the same time. If one co-owner dies, ownership passes to the other co-owner—this is known as Right of Survivorship.

This form of co-buying a home presents an opportunity to prospective home buyers who may not yet have the means to purchase a home on their own by combining their buying power with that of their co-buyer. However, entering a real estate transaction with a co-buyer means that you’re financially tied together, which opens the door for added risk.

Tenancy In Common

When co-buyers hold a title as tenants in common, shares of the property can be divided equally or unequally. But even with a disparity in ownership percentage, no one owner may claim sole ownership of the property. When a tenant in common passes away, their ownership is bequeathed to their designated heir.

Tenancy In Severalty

Unlike Joint Tenancy and Tenancy in Common, Tenancy in Severalty represents an agreement in which one individual, corporation, or entity owns the property and does not share ownership with anyone.

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Art Deco Interior Design https://lynlycallaway.com/2022/12/13/art-deco-interior-design https://lynlycallaway.com/2022/12/13/art-deco-interior-design#respond Tue, 13 Dec 2022 01:27:27 +0000 https://lynlycallaway.com/?p=28569 There are countless interior design styles to inspire your home décor efforts, but some stand out above the rest. Art Deco is one such style. Though its roots trace back to a specific period, its long-lasting relevance has given it the unique ability to feel vintage, modern, and timeless all at once. Whatever home décor goals you have in […]

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There are countless interior design styles to inspire your home décor efforts, but some stand out above the rest. Art Deco is one such style. Though its roots trace back to a specific period, its long-lasting relevance has given it the unique ability to feel vintage, modern, and timeless all at once. Whatever home décor goals you have in mind, going behind the curtain on the history and concepts of Art Deco will help inspire your efforts.

Art Deco Interior Design

Art Deco is a decorative take on modernist style from the early twentieth century. One look at interiors designed in typical Art Deco style immediately brings the elegance of the 1920s and 1930s to mind. Art Deco, like the Mid-Century Modern movement that followed it, went beyond just interior design; it encompassed fashion, architecture, the auto industry, and more. Driven by an appreciation for the modern machines of the time, Art Deco emphasized sophistication in a nontraditional sense.

 

A living room with art deco decorations including a chandelier, a regal tufted green couch, gold decorations, and a dark wooden piano and coffee table.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: Nikada

 

Art Deco in Your Home

Art Deco can help to transform your home’s interior, but you don’t have to aim for a level of opulence Jay Gatsby would approve of to reap its rewards. The concepts found in modern adaptations of Art Deco can fit any budget, and the materials used to execute it are widely available.

Art Deco Concepts

Geometry is a cornerstone of Art Deco décor. You’ll often see spaces decorated in this style using geometric shapes like chevrons and sunbursts in parquet wood flooring and tilework. Rounded corners and smooth walls are principal architectural features. Mirrors are also central to an Art Deco aesthetic, helping to create symmetry without taking away from the rest of the room. Framed mirrors and mirror walls alike are popular features.

In the style of modern and minimalist decoration, Art Deco showcases a preference for uncluttered spaces with minimal furniture, letting the decorative elements shine. Optimal furniture pieces often come with mirrored and/or veneer façades, heavy lacquer, rounded edges, and circular designs. Go for bold colors when decorating, working from a neutral base. Silver and gold feel right at home in an Art Deco environment, as do alternative neutrals such as cream and beige.

 

Lilac color dining room in trendy art deco style with modern furniture, served table and chairs.

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: Peter_visual

 

Art Deco Materials

Common materials include veneer, stainless steel, and chrome. Frames for a gallery wall and tableside lamps are great uses for gold and steel, which are two signature Art Deco materials. Making smaller ornate décor choices such as intricately framed mirrors and accent lighting fixtures will help to create a regal atmosphere while staying within your budget.

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Remodeling Projects to Avoid When Selling Your Home https://lynlycallaway.com/2022/11/28/remodeling-projects-to-avoid-when-selling-your-home https://lynlycallaway.com/2022/11/28/remodeling-projects-to-avoid-when-selling-your-home#respond Mon, 28 Nov 2022 22:47:44 +0000 https://lynlycallaway.com/?p=28555 It’s common for homeowners to feel compelled to remodel their homes before they sell. Renovating the spaces in your home can increase its value and help you compete with comparable listings in your area. However, some remodeling projects are more beneficial than others as you prepare to sell your home. Always talk to your agent to determine […]

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It’s common for homeowners to feel compelled to remodel their homes before they sell. Renovating the spaces in your home can increase its value and help you compete with comparable listings in your area. However, some remodeling projects are more beneficial than others as you prepare to sell your home. Always talk to your agent to determine which projects are most appealing to buyers in your area.

Remodeling Projects to Avoid When Selling Your Home

When preparing to sell your home, you want to strike the right balance of upgrades. Making repairs and executing renovations will attract buyer interest, but you don’t want to dump so much cash into remodeling that you won’t be able to recoup those expenses when your home sells.

So, how do you know where to focus your efforts? Your agent is a vital resource in understanding your specific situation and will offer guidance on your remodeling efforts to sell your home for the best price. Here are a few projects sellers will want to keep off their to-do lists for the best return on investment.

 

A man and woman discuss a renovation project with their real estate agent as construction contractors work in the background

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: skynesher

 

Minor Cosmetic Upgrades

Whether you’ve made small cosmetic upgrades throughout your home typically isn’t a make-or-break proposition for most buyers. Let’s say you’re questioning whether to invest in a new toilet, vanity, and shower for your primary bathroom before selling. Unless these appliances are damaged and you can repair them without spending too much, it’s okay to sell as is.

Major Upgrades with Long Timelines

For any remodeling project, your agent’s analysis will help you determine its risk/reward potential. This dynamic is heightened with major remodeling projects and home upgrades, due to their higher costs. Four of the six lowest ROI remodeling projects found in the Remodeling 2022 Cost vs. Value Report (www.costvsvalue.com)1 are upscale or major upgrades, all with roughly a 50% return on investment.

These projects come with hefty price tags and longer timelines than minor repairs and upgrades, which can complicate factors as you prepare to sell, especially if you have a deadline to get into your new home. They have the potential to temporarily displace you from the property, meaning you and your household may have to find somewhere else to stay until the project is complete.

  • The Bottom Line: To go through with a major home upgrade before you sell, its schedule must fit with your moving timeline. It should also align with buyer interest in your local market. If the project doesn’t meet these criteria, it should be avoided.

Building Code Violations

The rules dictating whether you can sell your home with building code violations vary region to region. It also depends on what the building code violation is and whether neglecting to update it is deemed a safety hazard. The buyer’s mortgage lender may also have stipulations saying that the loan may not be used to purchase a home with certain features that aren’t up to code, which could lead to them backing out of the deal.

If you’re selling an older home, you’re not obligated to update every feature that may be out of code to fit modern standards. These projects are often structural and require a significant investment. If the violation in question was built to code according to the regulations at the time, then a grandfather clause typically applies. However, you’ll need to disclose these features to the buyer.

Trendy Makeovers and Upgrades

Lastly, it’s best to avoid remodeling projects that target a specific trend in home design. Trends come and go. Timeless design is a hallmark of marketable homes because it appeals to the widest possible pool of buyers. Keep this in mind when staging your home as well. Creating an environment that’s universally appealing and depersonalized allows buyers to more easily imagine the home as their own.

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Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023 https://lynlycallaway.com/2022/11/14/matthew-gardners-top-10-predictions-for-2023 https://lynlycallaway.com/2022/11/14/matthew-gardners-top-10-predictions-for-2023#respond Mon, 14 Nov 2022 23:34:06 +0000 https://lynlycallaway.com/?p=28549 This video shows Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market. Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023 1. There Is No Housing Bubble Mortgage rates rose steeply in 2022 […]

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This video shows Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.


Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023

1. There Is No Housing Bubble

Mortgage rates rose steeply in 2022 which, when coupled with the massive run-up in home prices, has some suggesting that we are recreating the housing bubble of 2007. But that could not be further from the truth.

Over the past couple of years, home prices got ahead of themselves due to a perfect storm of massive pandemic-induced demand and historically low mortgage rates. While I expect year-over-year price declines in 2023, I don’t believe there will be a systemic drop in home values. Furthermore, as financing costs start to pull back in 2023, I expect that will allow prices to resume their long-term average pace of growth.

2. Mortgage Rates Will Drop

Mortgage rates started to skyrocket at the start of 2022 as the Federal Reserve announced their intent to address inflation. While the Fed doesn’t control mortgage rates, they can influence them, which we saw with the 30-year rate rising from 3.2% in early 2022 to over 7% by October.

Their efforts so far have yet to significantly reduce inflation, but they have increased the likelihood of a recession in 2023. Therefore, early in the year I expect the Fed to start pulling back from their aggressive policy stance, and this will allow rates to begin slowly stabilizing. Rates will remain above 6% until the fall of 2023 when they should dip into the high 5% range. While this is higher than we have become used to, it’s still more than 2% lower than the historic average.

3. Don’t Expect Inventory to Grow Significantly

Although inventory levels rose in 2022, they are still well below their long-term average. In 2023 I don’t expect a significant increase in the number of homes for sale, as many homeowners do not want to lose their low mortgage rate. In fact, I estimate that 25-30 million homeowners have mortgage rates around 3% or lower. Of course, homes will be listed for sale for the usual reasons of career changes, death, and divorce, but the 2023 market will not have the normal turnover in housing that we have seen in recent years.

4. No Buyer’s Market But a More Balanced One

With supply levels expected to remain well below normal, it’s unlikely that we will see a buyer’s market in 2023. A buyer’s market is usually defined as having more than six months of available inventory, and the last time we reached that level was in 2012 when we were recovering from the housing bubble. To get to six months of inventory, we would have to reach two million listings, which hasn’t happened since 2015. In addition, monthly sales would have to drop below 325,000, a number we haven’t seen in over a decade. While a buyer’s market in 2023 is unlikely, I do expect a return to a far more balanced one.

5. Sellers Will Have to Become More Realistic

We all know that home sellers have had the upper hand for several years, but those days are behind us. That said, while the market has slowed, there are still buyers out there. The difference now is that higher mortgage rates and lower affordability are limiting how much buyers can pay for a home. Because of this, I expect listing prices to pull back further in the coming year, which will make accurate pricing more important than ever when selling a home.

6. Workers Return to Work (Sort of)

The pandemic’s impact on where many people could work was profound, as it allowed buyers to look further away from their workplaces and into more affordable markets. Many businesses are still determining their long-term work-from-home policies, but in the coming year I expect there will be more clarity for workers. This could be the catalyst for those who have been waiting to buy until they know how often they’re expected to work at the office.

7. New Construction Activity Is Unlikely to Increase

Permits for new home construction are down by over 17% year over year, as are new home starts. I predict that builders will pull back further in 2023, with new starts coming in at a level we haven’t seen since before the pandemic.

Builders will start seeing some easing in the supply chain issues that hit them hard over the past two years, but development costs will still be high. Trying to balance homebuilding costs with what a consumer can pay (given higher mortgage rates) will likely lead builders to slow activity. This will actually support the resale market, as fewer new homes will increase the demand for existing homes.

8. Not All Markets Are Created Equal

Markets where home price growth rose the fastest in recent years are expected to experience a disproportionate swing to the downside. For example, markets in areas that had an influx of remote workers, who flocked to cheaper housing during the pandemic, will likely see prices fall by a greater percentage than other parts of the country. That said, even those markets will start to see prices stabilize by the end of 2023 and resume a more reasonable pace of price growth.

9. Affordability Will Continue to Be a Major Issue

In most markets, home prices will not increase in 2023, but any price drop will not be enough to make housing more affordable. And with mortgage rates remaining higher than they’ve been in over a decade, affordability will continue to be a problem in the coming year, which is a concerning outlook for first-time buyers.

Over the past two years, many renters have had aspirations of buying but the timing wasn’t quite right for them. With both prices and mortgage rates spiraling upward in 2022, it’s likely that many renters are now in a situation where the dream of homeownership has gone. That’s not to say they will never be able to buy a home, just that they may have to wait a lot longer than they had hoped.

10. Government Needs to Take Housing More Seriously

Over the past two years, the market has risen to such an extent that it has priced out millions of potential home buyers. With a wave of demand coming from Millennials and Gen Z, the pace of housing production must increase significantly, but many markets simply don’t have enough land to build on. This is why I expect more cities, counties, and states to start adjusting their land use policies to free up more land for housing.

But it’s not just land supply that can help. Elected officials can assist housing developers by utilizing Tax Increment Financing tools, whereby the government reimburses a private developer as incremental taxes are generated from housing development. There are many tools like this at the government’s disposal to help boost housing supply, and I sincerely hope that they start to take this critical issue more seriously.

 


About Matthew Gardner

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

The post Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023 appeared first on Lynly Callaway.

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Q3 2022 Western Washington Real Estate Market Update https://lynlycallaway.com/2022/10/26/q3-2022-western-washington-real-estate-market-update https://lynlycallaway.com/2022/10/26/q3-2022-western-washington-real-estate-market-update#respond Wed, 26 Oct 2022 20:51:37 +0000 https://lynlycallaway.com/?p=28543 The following analysis of select counties of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real […]

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The following analysis of select counties of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

 

Regional Economic Overview

The Western Washington labor market continues to expand. The addition of 110,000 jobs over the past 12 months represents an impressive increase of 4.9%. All but seven counties have recovered completely from their pandemic job losses. In total, the region has recovered all the jobs lost and has added an additional 30,000 new positions. The regional unemployment rate in August was 3.8%. This is .2% higher than at the end of the second quarter. That said, county data is not seasonally adjusted, which is likely the reason for the modest increase. The labor force has not expanded at its normal pace, which is starting to impact job growth. Although the likelihood of a recession starting at some point this winter has risen, I am not overly concerned at this point; however, I anticipate businesses may start to taper hiring if they feel demand for their goods and services is softening.

Western Washington Home Sales

❱ In the third quarter, 19,455 homes traded hands, representing a drop of 29.2% from the same period a year ago. Sales were 15.4% lower than in the second quarter of this year.

❱ Listing activity continues to increase, with the average number of homes for sale up 103% from a year ago and 61% higher than in the second quarter of 2022.

❱ Year over year, sales fell across the board, but when compared to second quarter they were higher in Mason, Cowlitz, Jefferson, and Clallam counties.

❱ Pending sales (demand) outpaced listings (supply) by a factor of 1:6. This ratio has been dropping for the past three quarters and indicates a market moving back toward balance. The only question is whether it will overshoot and turn into a buyer’s market.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in Western Washington from Q3 2021 to Q3 2022. All counties have a negative percentage year-over-year change. Here are the totals: Jefferson at -6.1%, Skagit at -11.1%, Cowlitz -13.8%, Whatcom -18.7%, Island -19.6%, Grays Harbor -19.7%, Lewis -23.1%, Kitsap -23.4%, Clallam -24.3%, Mason -25.3%, San Juan -27.2%, Thurston -28%, Pierce -28.7%, Snohomish -32.4%, and King -33.9%.

Western Washington Home Prices

❱ Higher financing costs and more choice in the market continue to impact home prices. Although prices rose an average of 3.6% compared to a year ago, they were down 9.9% from the prior quarter. The current average sale price of a home in Western Washington is $748,569.

❱ The change in list prices is a good leading indicator and we have seen a change in the market. All but two counties (Island and Jefferson) saw median list prices either static or lower than in the second quarter of 2022.

❱ Prices rose in all but two counties, and several counties saw price growth well above their long-term averages.

❱ With the number of homes for sale rising and list prices starting to pull back, it’s not surprising to see price growth falter. We are going through a reversion following the overstimulated market of 2020 and 2021. There will be some ugly numbers in terms of sales and prices as we move through this period of adjustment, but the pain will be temporary.

A map showing the real estate home prices percentage changes for various counties in Western Washington. Different colors correspond to different tiers of percentage change. Skagit County is the only county with a percentage change in the 9%+ range, Whatcom, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, Mason, and Clallam counties are in the 6% to 8.9% change range, Lewis, Kitsap, and Jefferson are in the 3% to 5.9% change range, Grays Harbor and King counties are in the 0% to 2.9% change range, and San Juan and Island counties are in the -9.5% to -0.1% change range.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in Western Washington from Q3 2021 to Q3 2022. Skagit county tops the list at 12.5%, followed by Mason, Whatcom, and Pierce counties at 8.6%, Thurston at 8.4%, Snohomish at 7.8%, Clallam at 7.6%, Jefferson at 5.8%, Kitsap at 4.8%, Lewis at 3.6%, Grays Harbor at 2.9%, King at 2.7%, Cowlitz at 0.7%, Island at -3.1%, and finally San Juan at -9.5%.

Mortgage Rates

This remains an uncertain period for mortgage rates. When the Federal Reserve slowed bond purchases in 2013, investors were accused of having a “taper tantrum,” and we are seeing a similar reaction today. The Fed appears to be content to watch the housing market go through a period of pain as they throw all their tools at reducing inflation.

As a result, mortgage rates are out of sync with treasury yields, which not only continues to push rates much higher, but also creates violent swings in both directions. My current forecast calls for rates to peak in the fourth quarter of this year before starting to slowly pull back. That said, they will remain in the 6% range until the end of 2023.

A bar graph showing the mortgage rates from 2020 to the present, as well as Matthew Gardner's forecasted mortgage rates through Q4 2023. After the 5.62% figure in Q3 2022, he forecasts mortgage rates continuing to climb to 6.7% in Q4 2022, 6.55% in Q1 2023, 6.35% in Q2 2023, 6.15% in Q3 2023, and 5.60% in Q4 2023.

Western Washington Days on Market

❱ It took an average of 24 days for a home to sell in the third quarter of the year. This was seven more days than in the same quarter of 2021, and eight days more than in the second quarter.

❱ King and Kitsap counties were the tightest markets in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of 19 days to sell.

❱ Only one county (San Juan) saw the average time on market drop from the same period a year ago. San Juan was also the only county to see market time drop between the second and third quarters of this year.

❱ The greatest increase in market time compared to a year ago was in Grays Harbor, where it took an average of 13 more days for homes to sell. Compared to the second quarter of 2022, Thurston County saw average market time rise the most (from 9 to 20 days).

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Western Washington for Q3 2022. King and Kitsap counties have the lowest DOM at 19, followed by Thurston and Snohomish at 20, Island and Pierce at 21, Whatcom and Skagit at 23, Cowlitz at 24, Mason at 25, Lewis at 26, Clallam and Jefferson at 27, and Grays Harbor and San Juan at 34.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Listings are up, sales are down, and a shift toward buyers has started. After a decade of sellers dominating the market, it is far too early to say that the shift is enough to turn the market in favor of buyers, but the pendulum has started to swing in their direction. A belief that the housing market is on its way to collapsing will keep some buyers sidelined, while others may be waiting for mortgage rates to settle down. Whatever their reasons, I maintain that we will see a brief period where annual price growth will turn negative in several markets, but it is only because the market is normalizing. I certainly don’t see any systemic risk of home values falling like they did in the mid-to-late 2000s.

A speedometer graph indicating a slight seller's market in Western Washington for Q3 2022.

All things considered, I have moved the needle toward buyers, but it remains, for the time being, a seller’s market.

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

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5 Pet-Friendly House Cleaning Tips https://lynlycallaway.com/2022/10/24/5-pet-friendly-house-cleaning-tips https://lynlycallaway.com/2022/10/24/5-pet-friendly-house-cleaning-tips#respond Mon, 24 Oct 2022 21:31:02 +0000 https://lynlycallaway.com/?p=28535 Pets make a house a home. But as much as you love your furry friends, they do add a few entries to your list of chores. Keeping your home clean requires a bit of extra work, and some methods of upkeep are more pet-friendly than others. The following tips will help you keep your house […]

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Pets make a house a home. But as much as you love your furry friends, they do add a few entries to your list of chores. Keeping your home clean requires a bit of extra work, and some methods of upkeep are more pet-friendly than others. The following tips will help you keep your house clean and your pets happy.

5 Pet-Friendly House Cleaning Tips

1. Safely Clean Up Accidents

When pet owners buy a home, they proceed knowing full well that pet accidents and messes are bound to happen. Cleaning up messes quickly is important for keeping your home clean, but it will also remove the scent, so your pets don’t come back to that same area with the same intentions. When shopping around, look for cleaning products that are safe for animals and don’t contain any toxic chemicals.

2. Deep Clean to Reduce Smells

Pets have a knack for leaving a scent behind. Every pet owner knows the feeling of going through their normal cleaning routine to extinguish the pet smell from their home, only for it to linger after they’re done. To really get your home smelling fresh again, you’ll need to target your pets’ favorite areas as well as the commonly missed cleaning spots throughout your home like underneath furniture, along the baseboards, etc. You’ll be surprised at how much dirt and fur you find in these places.

 

An orange cat watches her owner work on his computer as he sits on the living room couch

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: Marco VDM

 

3. Clean Pet Toys Regularly

Your pets’ toys are magnets for dirt, fur, drool, and other unwanted substances. It’s a homeowner’s nightmare to imagine spending hours cleaning your home top to bottom, only for a muddy ball your pets have been chewing on to roll across the carpet. Cleaning toys regularly is also healthier for your pets as it helps to reduce the spread of germs. If your pets’ toys are dishwasher safe, pop them in the dishwasher every once in a while to get them squeaky clean.

4. Keep the Air Clean

Even after you’ve exhausted all your cleaning efforts on the surfaces throughout your home, pet fur and dander can still travel through the air. It’s important to clean the air in your home, especially if members of your household have allergies. Consider investing in an air purifier, which will filter air particles to remove dust and odors, giving everyone in your home—pets included—cleaner air to enjoy.

5. The Importance of Well-Groomed Pets

In the context of a clean, pet-friendly home, there’s one surface that’s more important than any—your pets themselves. Every pet owner has their routine; whether that’s regularly maintaining their cat’s litter box, wiping off the dog’s paws in the mudroom before letting them inside, regular baths and brushing, or keeping nails trimmed to avoid furniture and carpet damage, these are the boxes that must be checked to keep your home clean. For all your cleaning efforts, if your pets are still messy, then the spaces in your home will follow suit.

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Windermere Foundation Gala Raises $1.6 Million https://lynlycallaway.com/2022/10/17/windermere-foundation-gala-raises-1-6-million https://lynlycallaway.com/2022/10/17/windermere-foundation-gala-raises-1-6-million#respond Mon, 17 Oct 2022 23:00:14 +0000 https://lynlycallaway.com/?p=28527 In what has already been a banner year for the Windermere Foundation, the inaugural Windermere Foundation Gala took things to new heights. Held on the evening of September 30 at the Sheraton Grand in downtown Seattle, Windermere agents, owners, and staff dressed to the nines for a night of live entertainment and fundraising for low-income […]

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In what has already been a banner year for the Windermere Foundation, the inaugural Windermere Foundation Gala took things to new heights. Held on the evening of September 30 at the Sheraton Grand in downtown Seattle, Windermere agents, owners, and staff dressed to the nines for a night of live entertainment and fundraising for low-income and homeless families throughout the Western U.S.

With 2022 being Windermere’s 50th anniversary, the company set its sights on reaching $50 million in total donations for the Windermere Foundation by the end of the year. At the end of 2021, the grand total stood at $46 million raised since the Foundation began in 1989, leaving a roughly $4 million gap to reach the $50 million goal. Through the spring and summer, we saw an outpouring of support as Windermere offices around the network stepped up their fundraising and giving efforts. By the end of July, total year-to-date donations surged past $2 million, pushing the grand total to nearly $48 million.

The Windermere Foundation Gala

Then came the night of the Gala, during which the Windermere Foundation would receive the Excellence Award from the 5th Avenue Theatre. Windermere founder John Jacobi and family accepted the award on behalf of Windermere and expressed their commitment to continue their legacy of giving both personally and through the Windermere Foundation. But the Gala was more than a celebration; it was a massive fundraiser, with proceeds from ticket sales, table purchases, donations, and auction bids going back to communities throughout the Windermere footprint.

 

Windermere Foundation Gala attendees bid on a pizza oven in the ballroom foyer of the Grand Sheraton hotel in Seattle, WA

Image Source: Panravee Fernando – panraveephotography.com

 

As the Gala attendees entered the foyer of the Sheraton Grand Ballroom, they bid on silent auction packages displayed throughout the room. Up for auction were locally curated experiences and goods alike, including multiple-night stays at luxury resorts, tickets to a Broadway production, and more. Next was the live auction. Bids went up for 11 special packages, including a skiing adventure at an upscale resort in Park City, a guided fly-fishing excursion in Montana, and others. As part of an exclusive Pearl Jam auction package, their guitarist Mike McCready was in attendance, adding his signature on stage to an electric guitar signed by the band members.

 

Pearl Jam guitarist Mike McCready signs an electric guitar on stage at the Windermere Foundation gala. The item would go up for auction as part of a Pearl Jam package.

Image Source: Panravee Fernando – panraveephotography.com

 

Finally, the Gala attendees participated in Raise the Paddle, where they contributed donations at different levels. Windermere founder John Jacobi kickstarted the giving with a $100,000 donation, and from there, auctioneer John Curley guided the audience through descending levels of support, calling out bidder number after bidder number in what was an outpouring of giving from the audience. The Windermere network more than doubled the $250,000 goal of Raise the Paddle, ultimately raising $520,250 in donations.

 

Windermere Foundation Gala attendees hold their bidder numbers in the air as they contribute to Raise the Paddle, collectively raising $520,250 in donations.

Image Source: Panravee Fernando – panraveephotography.com

 

In total, the Windermere Foundation Gala raised $1.6 million, catapulting Windermere towards its goal of reaching $50 million in total donations by the end of 2022.

To learn more about the Windermere Foundation, visit windermerefoundation.com.

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Making a Contingent Offer: Common Real Estate Contingencies https://lynlycallaway.com/2022/10/10/making-a-contingent-offer-common-real-estate-contingencies https://lynlycallaway.com/2022/10/10/making-a-contingent-offer-common-real-estate-contingencies#respond Mon, 10 Oct 2022 18:29:29 +0000 https://lynlycallaway.com/?p=28517 Imagine a home-buying scenario where you make an offer, the seller immediately accepts, and the two of you move through closing without any hiccups until you have keys in hand. It’s possible, but a more likely home buying experience is marked by negotiation, counteroffers, and a back-and-forth dialogue between both parties to reach a deal. And in […]

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Imagine a home-buying scenario where you make an offer, the seller immediately accepts, and the two of you move through closing without any hiccups until you have keys in hand. It’s possible, but a more likely home buying experience is marked by negotiation, counteroffers, and a back-and-forth dialogue between both parties to reach a deal. And in some cases, the deal can fall through.

Contingencies protect buyers and sellers against these natural characteristics of the home buying process and any problems that may arise before a home sale is finalized. They help to shape a buyer’s offer and can be used strategically to make it more appealing. Whether you’re a first-time home buyer or you’ve bought before, you should be aware of common real estate contingencies and the role they play in making an offer on a home.

Making a Contingent Offer on a Home

After you and the seller agree on the price of a home, both parties have certain duties to finalize the transaction. Buyers are responsible for securing financing, having the home inspected, and getting the property appraised. Sellers are responsible for prioritizing the offer on the table and opening their doors to the home inspector when the time comes. The agreed-upon contingencies included in the contract protect the buyer and seller against any issues that may arise during this time.

Contingencies present a spectrum of options to home buyers, allowing them to walk away from a real estate transaction with their earnest money intact or renegotiate the contract. While their inclusion offers protection and negotiating leverage, sometimes their exclusion can be just as effective.

In a seller’s market, competition amongst buyers is high. Escalation clauses, bidding wars, and all-cash offers become commonplace as potential home buyers compete for a limited number of listings. To sweeten their offers in such market conditions, buyers will typically waive their contingencies. This presents added risk due to a lack of protection, but with so much competition around them, buyers are left with no choice but to maximize their offer’s appeal.

 

Man and a woman shaking hands with their real estate agent in the kitchen of their new home as they sign paperwork

Image Source: Getty Images – Image Credit: andresr

 

Common Real Estate Contingencies

Home Inspection Contingency

After you’ve made an offer, you’ll have a home inspector thoroughly examine the home before the deal is final. If they discover issues with the property, this contingency allows you and your agent to present the seller with a new offer that accounts for the home’s lessened condition, or to cancel the contract entirely.

Financing Contingency

Also known as a “mortgage contingency,” a financing contingency gives the buyer a specified period of time to secure adequate financing to purchase the home. Even if you are pre-approved for your mortgage, you may not be able to obtain the right loan for the home. If you are unable to finance the purchase, this contingency allows you to back out of the contract and recover your earnest money, and the seller can re-list the home.

Appraisal Contingency

An appraisal contingency states that the home must appraise for, at minimum, the sales price. It allows you to walk away from the deal if the property’s appraised value is lower than the sales price, and typically guarantees that your earnest money will be returned.

Home Sale Contingency

If you’re buying a new home while selling your current one, you may want to include a home sale contingency in your offer. This contingency specifies the date by which you’ll need to sell your current home in order to move forward with your offer. If you don’t sell your home by the specified date, the contract is terminated. Home sale contingencies are financially appealing in that they allow buyers to use the proceeds from their home sale to fund their new home purchase. However, these contingencies force sellers to wait until the buyer’s current home sells, which means they likely won’t accept such offers in competitive markets.

Title Contingency

Before the sale of a home goes final, a search will be performed to ensure that any liens or judgements made against the property have been resolved. A title contingency allows you to raise any issues you may have with the title status of the property and stipulates that the seller must clear these issues up before the transfer of title can be complete. If an unpaid lien or unpaid taxes turn up in the home’s title search, this contingency also allows you to back out of the deal and look for another home.

Give me a call to learn more about preparing a winning offer.

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