Market NewsMatthew Gardner October 3, 2021

9/27/2021 Housing and Economic Update from Matthew Gardner

This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.  

 

Hello there!  I’m Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, and welcome to the latest episode of Mondays with Matthew.

 

Today we are going to take a look at the latest Home Purchase Sentiment Index survey that was just put out by Fannie Mae. And for those of you who may not be familiar with this survey, it’s actually pretty important and one that I track closely as it’s the only national, monthly, survey of consumers that’s focused primarily on housing.

 

The survey shows the responses of 1,000 consumers across the country to roughly 100 survey questions on a wide range of housing-related topics. Now, don’t worry, we aren’t going to look at all 100 questions – just the ones that solicit consumers’ evaluations of housing market conditions and that also address topics related to their home purchase decisions.

Two line graphs side by side on a presentation slide titled “Home Purchase Sentiment”. On the Left is a graph showing the U.S. Home Purchase Sentiment Index Index Level from January 2021 to August 2021. From January 2021 to July 2019, there’s a slow increase from just above 65 to a peak just under 95. In May 2020 however, there’s a sharp valley that dips between 60 and 65. On the right shows the last three years where the Pandemic induced drop is more clear. The drop in sentiment index lasted roughly from February 2020 to August 2020, and has held relatively stable ever since, sitting between 75 and 83.

 

So, as you can see here, the overall index was trending higher pretty consistently until the pandemic happened which had massive, but temporary, impacts. And looking the last 3-years, you can get a better idea as to the speed of the pandemic induced drop – pretty remarkable.

Now, you will also see that the index recovered quite quickly; however, it fell again last fall as the pandemic was not going away at the speed many had hoped for – it rose again this spring but has been pulling back for the past few months but, that said, the August index level essentially matched the level seen in July.

Now let’s look at the questions that are used to create of the index number and how consumers responded.

 

Three lines on the same graph on a slide titled “Is it a Good Time to Buy?” which shows sentiment compared to those who think it’s a good time to buy and those who think it’s a bad time to buy. The graph’s x axis shows the percentage of respondents and the y axis shows dates from August 2018 to August 2021. The navy line indicates “Good Time to Buy” the light blue indicates bad time to buy, and the red indicates the net percentage good time to buy. The navy line sits above the other two lines for the most part, but it dips below and switches places with the light blue line in April 2021. The net share of those who say it’s a good time to buy jumped 7%, which is the first time it’s improved in the last four months.

 

When asked whether it was a good time to buy a home, the percentage who agreed with that statement rose from 28 to 32%, while the share who thought that it is a bad time to buy dropped from 66 to 63%. And, as a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy jumped 7 points month over month and its notable that this is the first time the net share number has improved in the past 4-months.

What I see here is that – although improving modestly, the general consensus is that it is not a good time to buy and that sentiment is being driven by two things: One – there are still not enough homes on the market, and two, rapidly rising prices are scaring some people.

 

Three lines on the same graph which shows seller sentiment. The presentation slide I titled “Is it a Good Time to Sell? The graph’s x-axis shows percentages from -60% to 100% and the y-axis shows thedates from August 2018 to August 2021. The navy line represents those who think it’s a good time to sell, the light blue line indicated those who think it’s a bad time to sell,and the red line indicates the net percentage of people who think it’s a good time to sell. The navy line is mostly on the higher end, sitting in the 65% range, until March 2020 when it flips with the light blue line. They switch back in August 2020 when they are 48% and 44%. The different grows in the last few months, landing at 54% net difference in August 21.

 

And when asked if they thought it was a good time to sell their homes it was interesting to see that share drop from 75 to 73% while the percentage who said that it’s a bad time to sell dropped 1 point to 19% and as a result, the net share of those who said it was a good time to sell pulled back by 1% but it still indicates that more owners think that it is a good time to sell than don’t.

 

Three lines on the ame grah to compare different sentiments about whether home prices will go up in the next 12 months. The slide is titled “Will Prices Go Up or Down Over the Next 12-Months” and the x-axis shows the percentage of respondents from -20% to 60%, and the y-axis shows the dates from August 2018 to August 2021. The navy lineindicates the respondents who thinkprices will go up, the light blue line shows the respondents who think prices will go down, and the red line shows the net percentage difference. In August 2021 net share of Americans who say home prices will go up dropped by 9 points – from 25%, down to 16%.

 

 

Looking now at the direction of home prices over the next 12-months, the percentage who think that home prices will rise fell from 46 to 40%, while the percentage who expected home prices to drop rose from 21 to 24%.

As a result, the net share of Americans who say home prices will go up dropped by 9 points – from 25%, down to 16%.

Although this may sound concerning, I should add that the share of respondents who thought that home prices will remain static over the next year rose from 27% to 31%.

 

Three lines on the same graph comparing the different expectations of people considering the mortgages rates of the next 12 months. The slide is titled “Mortgage Rate Expectations for the Next 12-Months” and the graph’s x-axis goes from -80% to 80% and the y axis shows dates from August 2018 to August 2021. The navy line indicates respondents who think mortgage rates will go up, the medium blue line shows those who think mortgage rates will go down, and the red lines shows the net percentage rates will go down. Most people think rates will go up. The net share of Americans who believed that mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months rose by 5%

 

On the financing side, the share who think mortgage rates will rise over the next 12 months dropped from 57 to 53%, while the percentage who believed rates would be lower rose from 5% to 6% and, as a result, the net share of Americans who believed that mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months rose by 5%, and with 35% of respondents thinking that that rates will hold steady – it’s clear to me that a vast majority are not worried about mortgage rates rising.

The takeaways for me so far are that consumers tempered both their recent pessimism about homebuying conditions and their upward expectations of home price growth.

Most notably, a greater share of consumers believe that it’s a good time to buy a home – though that population remains firmly in the minority at only 32% – while the ongoing plurality of respondents who expect home prices to go up over the next 12 months dropped but was still well above the 24% of consumers who believe home prices will fall.

Now, there are two more questions that are worth looking at which aren’t directly related to home buyers and sellers but are still important as they look at employment and incomes.

 

Titled “Are you worries about losing your job in the next 12 months” three lines on the same grph show the comparison of respondents between Augut 2018 and August 2021. The navy line represents the respondents who are not concerned, the light blueline shows those who are concerned, and the red line shows the net percentage not concerned. The net share of Americans who say they are not concerned about losing their job fell by 4 percentage points month over month, but remains well above the level seen a year ago.

 

The percentage of respondents who said that they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months remains very high at 82%, but it did drop by 2 points month-over-month, while the percentage who said that they are concerned ticked up to 15% from 13%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say they are not concerned about losing their job fell by 4 percentage points month over month, but remains well above the level seen a year ago.

 

This slide is titled “Is your household income higher now than it was 12-months ago?” the graph has 3 lines on it comparing different responses from the survey. The x-axis goes from -5% to 40% and the y-axis shows the dates from August 2018 to August 2021. The navy line indicates respondents who reported a higher income, the light blue indicates those with lower income and the red line shoes the net percentage who have higher income. The navy line is mostly the largest portion staying on the top of the graph, but it dips below the light blue line in April 2020, May 2020, and February 2021. The red line say a 1% increase in the last month, but rose from 9% in August 2020 to 14% in August 2021.

 

And finally, when households were asked about their own personal finances, the percentage of respondents who said that their household income is significantly higher now than it was 12 months ago pulled back one point to 26%, while the percentage who said that their household income is significantly lower dropped to 12%.

As a result, the net share of those who said that their household income is significantly higher than it was a year ago rose by 1 percent month over month and came in 5 points higher than a year ago. It’s also worthwhile noting that most said that their household income is about the same as it was a year ago with that share rising from 56 all the way up to 59%.

 

Looking at all the numbers in aggregate, the index level was relatively flat in August with three of the index’s six components rising month over month, while the other three fell, and that tells me that the continued strength of demand for housing and definitely favorable conditions for home sellers may well be offsetting broader concerns about the Delta variant of COVID-19 as well as rising inflation that have both negatively impacted other consumer confidence indices.

Most consumers continued to report that it’s a good time to sell a home – but a bad time to buy – and they most frequently cite high home prices and a lack of supply as their primary rationale.

 

However, the ‘good time to buy’ component, while still near a survey low, did tick up for the first time since March, perhaps owing in part to the very favorable mortgage rate environment as well as growing expectations that home price appreciation will begin to moderate over the next year. A sentiment that I personally agree with.

Well, I hope that you have found this month’s discussion to be interesting. As always if you have any questions or comments about this topic, please do reach out to me but, in the meantime, stay safe out there and I look forward the visiting with you all again, next month.