The dining room is a place of gathering, comfort, and community. Creating the right mood in the space is a matter of choices in décor and design. For example, a traditional dining room creates a heartwarming tone whereas a modern one feels minimalist and light. Homeowners can often feel puzzled when trying to upgrade their dining room, since it typically isn’t as simple as buying new appliances or green-lighting a remodeling project. Here are some simple ideas to help you upgrade your dining room and achieve the atmosphere you’re looking for.
How to Upgrade Your Dining Room
Lighting
A light fixture is often the centerpiece of a dining room. Your choice in lighting can greatly reinforce the dining room theme you’re going for, so look for fixtures that reinforce the other elements of the space. A chandelier will add a formal touch to the room, while more modern fixtures like pendant and warehouse lights can deliver a sense of chic sophistication. If you plan to hang a chandelier, keep in mind that the bottom of the fixture should hang roughly three feet above the dining room table. If you have vaulted ceilings, it should hang even higher.
Flooring
A full dining room upgrade happens from the ground up. If your flooring is outdated or showing signs of wear and tear, it’s the perfect time to add a flooring upgrade to your project list. Choosing the right flooring is a matter of identifying what material will work best in the space, assessing your budget, and forming a plan for installation. Materials like vinyl, ceramic tile, and hardwood are popular options, not only for their durability, but also because they’re easy to clean. Other niche options like cork or concrete can help create a specific ambience but may not be as widely available. Once you’ve decided on your material, talk to local contractors to compare installation quotes. There are pros and cons to installing flooring on your own or hiring a professional; know what they are before making a final decision.
When it comes down to it, the essential function of your dining room is to provide a setting for enjoying a meal. Together with your main lighting fixture, your table and chairs help to form the focal point of the room. Size is a critical component of your dining room table. There’s a Goldilocks dynamic with dining room tables. The larger the table, the more room everyone has, but the more space it takes up. Make sure to take exact measurements before shopping around so you know exactly what size you’re looking for.
Your chairs will reinforce the look and feel of your table. Consider balancing wood grains and matching colors. For example, if your dining room table is designed with intricate wood grain, look at chair sets with simple colors and designs to bring balance to the room. When it comes to the height of the seats, arms, and back, choose dimensions that suit the dining experience you’re looking to create. Generally, high-backed, narrower chairs create a more formal atmosphere than their rounded, modern counterparts. Either way, choose the combination that looks best to you and feels most comfortable.
A fresh coat of paint can take a dining room from stale to lively in a hurry. If you’re thinking about painting your dining room, think about how the color scheme would complement and/or contrast with the colors elsewhere in your home. A contrasting color will help differentiate the space, while a complimenting color will help to tie things together. New color in the dining room doesn’t have to come exclusively from painting a wall. Colored furniture pieces, decorative throw pillows, placemats, and table décor can help liven the space as well. Curtains and drapes can add a splash of color while softening the room, and when paired together with a decorative rug, can make your colors pop at different eye levels.
Your needs as a homeowner change over time, and you need the right home to fit those needs. Accordingly, it’s highly likely that at some point in your future you will experience another moving day. While moving can be challenging, there are resources to make it easier. If you are remaining in your current area, your Windermere agent can continue to be a valuable resource on communities, schools, utilities, transportation, recreational opportunities, and more.
If you are moving out of the area, your agent can help you with a referral to another reputable agent in your new community. Many agents also have relationships with real estate-related service companies in their area whom they can call upon for information regarding title, escrow, mortgages, temporary housing, and moving services. They can also help guide you in your search as you learn more about new communities and relocation services.
You’ve decided to move. Now what?
Once you have reached your decision, it’s time to gather information, start making decisions and get organized. Begin by creating a “move” file to keep track of your estimates, receipts, and other information. If you’re moving for a job, some expenses may be deductible, so you’ll want the paperwork when tax time comes.
If you are moving out of the area, start researching your new community and ask your agent for help in finding a referral agent in your new area. You’ll also want to determine whether you want to rent first or buy immediately. Your new agent should be able to help you with your decision. Once you know where you’re going, you’re also ready to get estimates from moving companies.
Closing one door, opening another
After you have chosen a moving date and either hired a moving company or reserved a rental truck, it’s time to wrap things up in your old neighborhood and start establishing relationships where your new home is located. This is particularly important if you are moving to a new town/city. You may want to ask your current doctors, dentists, etc. if they have any referrals on care providers in your new location. Be sure to check their recommendations on your insurance company’s online provider search list. Once you arrive, you may also want to ask new coworkers, friends or the school nurse for their recommendations.
Contact your children’s school and/or day care and arrange for their records to be sent to their new school district or day care. Call your insurance agent about coverage en route to your new home and also arrange for insurance in your new home. Remember to contact utility companies to disconnect, transfer or end service in your current home and turn on service in your new home.
You’ll want to file a change of address form with the U.S. Postal Service, either online or at your local office. If you don’t know your new address, have them hold your mail at the post office in your new locale. Don’t forget to cancel or transfer magazine and newspaper subscriptions as well.
If you belong to a health club or other association, contact them about ending or transferring your membership. Some clubs require written notice before cancellation. Finally, contact your bank or credit union to transfer or close accounts; if you have a safe-deposit box, don’t forget to clean it out before you leave.
Starting the countdown
With moving day in sight, it’s time to get organized. Here are a few items to check off your list before you start packing:
Tie up loose ends. Be sure to send out an email or change of address cards with your new contact information to family, friends, and associates. Return library books and any other borrowed items you may still have.
Triage your possessions. Determine what you are taking with you; what you are giving away to friends, family, or a favorite charity; and what is going to the dump or recycling center. If you have time, you can hold a garage sale or post items on craigslist.org or ebay.com.
Clean up. Drain all gas and oil from your mower, other machinery, gas grills, kerosene stoves and lamps, etc., before loading them onto a moving truck. Empty, defrost, and clean your refrigerator at least 24 hours before your move, and prepare other appliances for moving as well.
Have your car serviced. This is especially important if you are driving to your new home.
Packing strategies
If you are doing your own packing, start collecting boxes and/or buy them from your movers. It may take a few days to do your packing, so be sure to pack non-essential items first and label them carefully. If you have any valuables, it’s recommended that you take them with you as opposed to packing them. You risk the chance of losing those items if they’re packed away in boxes. It’s also smart to take along a box of essentials, including items such as toilet paper, paper towels, tape, soap, scissors, pens, paper, and your toiletries. That way you won’t have to track these items down once you’ve arrived in your new home.
Mistakes in the selling process can throw your plans off course, causing costly delays. But by knowing what mistakes to avoid ahead of time, you can save yourself the headache and the expense. Steer clear of these common mistakes as you work alongside your agent towards a successful sale.
7 Mistakes to Avoid When Selling a Home
1. Skipping Repairs
Neglecting to make repairs to your home before you sell not only makes it less appealing to buyers, but it can also open you up to additional costs that result from the buyer’s inspection. If you fail to disclose any repairs that need to be made, it could halt the closing process or cause the deal to fall through. Consider conducting a pre-listing inspection to make sure everything is out in the open before you sell.
2. Not Working with an Agent
Listing agents help sellers accurately price their home, coordinate showings and open houses, and negotiate with buyers’ agents to get the best deal for their client. Choosing not to work with an agent can open you up to several risks. Selling a home is an intricate, complicated process that needs the guiding hand of a professional, so it’s no wonder that a vast majority of sellers choose to work with an agent.
3. Incorrectly Pricing Your Home
The key to selling your home quickly is to find the right buyers. To find the right buyers, your home must be correctly priced. Agents use a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA)—a thorough, data-backed examination of your home and how it compares to other listings in your area—to accurately price your home. Without an agent’s CMA, it’s easy for your home to be listed at the wrong price, leading to the following consequences.
Overpricing Your Home: Overpricing your home will attract the wrong buyers because you will force your home into competition with other listings that are fundamentally superior or have more to offer. When comparing other homes to yours, buyers will focus on the discrepancies and the features your home lacks. Overpricing will often cause homes to sit on the market for extended periods of time and become less appealing to buyers.
Underpricing Your Home: Under competitive market conditions, intentionally underpricing a home is a common strategy to attract buyer attention with the goal of starting a bidding war to drive the price of the home up. However, several things must go correctly for this to happen. In all other cases, underpricing your home reflects a lack of knowledge about where its market value fits into the fabric of current local market conditions and can leave you, the seller, unsatisfied with the price your home ultimately fetches.
4. Letting Your Emotions Take Over
Selling your home is an act of learning how to let it go. Once you know you’re ready to sell, you’ll need to be able to look at it with an objective eye. This will allow you to approach conversations with your agent from a neutral standpoint and work towards what is best for the sale of the home. If you’re too emotionally attached, you may find that you have trouble agreeing with your agent when it comes to negotiations. Overall, emotions can cloud your judgement and make the successful completion of the transaction more complex. If you’re struggling with tabling your emotions, talk to your agent for guidance.
5. Not Prioritizing Photography
One of the hard truths for selling a home is that first impressions matter. The vast majority of buyers are searching online and taking virtual tours of homes they’re interested in. As such, it’s worth the time and money to hire a high-quality photographer. The right photography can make all the difference in the minds of buyers. An aesthetically pleasing home will attract more eyes, and any edge you can give your home over competing listings may be just the ticket to getting it sold.
6. Selling Before You’re Ready
It may be tempting to want to get your house on the market quickly to take advantage of local market conditions, but if the time isn’t right for you, rushing into the market could cause more trouble than it’s worth. Knowing when to sell your home is a mixture of being financially prepared, finding the right agent, and understanding how your home fits into the current local market landscape.
7. Refusing to Negotiate
Approaching buyers’ offers with a cold shoulder can lead to missed opportunities. Before the offers start to come in, it’s important to work closely with your agent to understand your expectations and which terms and contingencies you’re willing to negotiate. That way, you can quickly identify the right offer when it comes along. If you’re unwilling to negotiate, it can drive buyers away and leave potential deals on the table.
This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.
Hello there! I’m Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, and welcome to the latest episode of Mondays with Matthew.
Before I get started, I wanted to let you know that this will be the final episode of Monday with Matthew for 2021 as I’m going to be taking Christmas off. So it’s time to offer you my forecasts for the U.S. economy and the country’s housing market in 2022.
Although many people – including myself – had hoped that COVID-19 would have become a somewhat distant memory by now, and that the economy would have recovered this was – sadly – not to be the case, and the pandemic’s influence on the economy is still being felt and all the datasets I track tell me that, although we are certainly healing, COVID continues to act as a drag on economic growth and I expect that to continue through the spring of next year – if not a little longer.
Economic Recovery & Growth
And it’s because of this that I – along with many other economists – have spent the last few months lowering our forecasts for economic growth – at least through the middle of 2022. So, let’s look at this a little closer.
Here is my forecast for economic growth through the end of next year and you will note that, even though I am cautious in regard to the economy as we move through the winter and into 2022, I am still expecting to see a fairly decent bounce back in the fourth quarter of this year following the very disappointing rate that we saw in Q-3.
And on an annualized basis, I believe that the economy will have expanded by just shy of 5% this year and come in a little below 4% in 2022.
Simply put, the impacts of COVID-19 are going to continue to act as a drag on virus sensitive consumer services next year and ongoing supply chain issues will also delay inventory restocking. Both of these impacts have a depressing effect, in more ways than one, on economic growth, but I don’t see any chance that we will fall back into a recession.
Looking at the employment picture this chart shows my forecast for average monthly growth in jobs during a quarter and to give you some context, over the last decade or so the country has added an average of around 200,000 jobs per month during any one quarter and my forecast is for more robust employment growth as we move through 2022 and, if correct, I expect to see the country return to pre-COVID employment levels in the second half of the year.
And with jobs continuing to return I’m looking for the unemployment rate to continue trending lower and breaking south of 4% during the final quarter of the year. With the expiration of enhanced unemployment benefits – in concert with wages rising significantly in many face-to-face industries such as leisure and hospitality – prospects for people currently unemployed are looking rather good. That said, there are still millions of unemployed Americans who are not looking for work even with wages rising, the labor force still down by 3 million from its pre-pandemic peak, and this is worrying as businesses continue to have a hard time finding employees which raises the expectation that inflation will remain higher for longer than I would have liked to see.
Measures of Inflation
And that leads nicely into my final economic forecast and that is my outlook for inflation. As we have discussed, supply chain issues and labor shortages have increased prices significantly and this top chart shows annual changes in all consumer prices which I expect to remain around 5% until next spring, before gradually dropping down to below 3% by the end of the year.
But the core inflation rate – which excludes the volatile food and energy sectors – won’t peak until early next year before it too starts to gradually pull back and, at these levels, the Federal Reserve will undoubtedly have started to raise interest rates to counteract inflationary pressures. This is not pretty, but I absolutely do not believe that we are in some sort of inflationary spiral, or that “stagflation” will raise its ugly head again.
U.S. Housing Market
Okay! Now it’s time to turn our attention to the U.S. housing market which was a beacon of hope during the pandemic period and, given the massive spike in demand that started last June, I’m looking for a little more than 6 million existing homes will have changed hands in 2021, but I don’t see this level increasing in 2022 – mainly due to ongoing supply limitations as well as rising affordability issues, and I’m therefore forecasting sales to pull back – albeit very modestly – next year. That said, the country has never seen more than 6 million home selling in a single year since records were first kept so the number is still very impressive.
And with the market as tight as it has been so far this year, it shouldn’t be any surprise to see median sale prices skyrocketing and, even though we have 3 more months of sales data yet to be released, I still anticipate prices will have risen by almost 16 and a half % in 2021- a quite remarkable number. This pace of appreciation has never been seen before. In fact, the closest was back in 2005 – when the housing bubble was inflating rapidly – but even then, prices only rose by 12.2%.
But, as I mentioned in my sales forecast, this pace of growth is unsustainable and I am expecting to see some of the heat to come off the market next year but, a growth rate of 7.3% is certainly nothing to sniff at.
There are three major reasons why we will see the pace of growth slow. I have already mentioned my concerns regarding housing affordability, but mortgage rates and new supply will both influence the slowdown in sales and price growth in the resale arena.
Although I do not prepare a forecast for housing affordability, this is my where I expect to see mortgage rates through the end of next year and I am looking for them to continue “stair-stepping” higher but still ending 2022 below 4% – very low by historic standards given that the long-term average for a conventional 30-year mortgage is somewhere around 7 1/2%.
Obviously, as rates notch higher that starts to compress price growth as it puts a lower ceiling on how much a buyer can afford to pay for a home.
And slowing growth in existing home prices and sales will also be a function of additional supply and this chart shows my forecast for single-family starts this year and next. I expect more than a million homes to start construction in 2022 – continuing the trend that started in mid-2020 – but I am sure that some of you may be asking yourselves that if starts are already robust, how have existing home sales been able to increase so significantly if there has been solid supply coming from homebuilders – and that would be a great question.
And I would answer this by telling you that the way the Census gathers data on start is to count the number of home foundations that have been poured, but vertical construction has not necessarily started. And what we have been seeing is a lot of foundations but not so many homes actually being built – and we know this by looking at the number of homes that are for sale but have yet to be started. So, it’s important to look at a separate number that the Census Bureau also puts out which counts the number of units actually under construction, and that number has been growing significantly over the course of the last 18 months or so.
Builders have been hamstrung with rising labor and material costs which will lead new home sales this year to fall below the number seen in 2020; however, I do expect this to pick up significantly next year and my current forecast calls for 927,000 new homes to be sold in 2022.
So, there you have it, my economic and housing market forecast for 2022.
Of course, there are still a number of variables that could lead me to revise this forecast but, as an old economics professor of mine used to tell me, “Gardner, forecast well, but forecast often!”
If everything goes according to my plan, you should expect to see the housing market start to move towards some sort of balance next year, but I am afraid that it will still remain out of equilibrium until at least 2023.
And if you’re wondering, no, I don’t see a housing bubble forming and I’m also not at all concerned about homeowners currently in forbearance, but it would be silly to say that there aren’t any issues in the housing market that concern me because there are and the biggest of which is housing affordability and this will have a significant impact on the millennial generation who are continuing to get older, and they are all – well most – thinking about settling down and, possibly, having children, and I wonder how hard it will be for many of them to be able to afford to buy their first home because most really do want to become homeowners. Will builders figure out how to build to this massive pent-up demand? I guarantee you that whoever can solve this puzzle will do very, very well.
COVID-19 caused an unparalleled shock to the US economy and the rise of the delta variant has certainly impacted the speed of our recovery but, rest assured, this particular forecaster firmly believes that we will recover and that the economy will continue to grow.
Demand for ownership housing remains remarkably buoyant and, in fact, it is quite likely that demand may actually increase with the work from home paradigm that will start to gain momentum next year. It will be fascinating to watch how this impacts not just demand, but where these buyers will ultimately choose to live.
As the popularity of remote work has reached new heights in recent years, the needs of homeowners are changing. Home offices and workspaces have never been higher on buyers’ priority lists and sellers are finding ways to make their homes appeal to a remote working audience. So, what does this mean for the home office moving forward? How will it continue to evolve? Only time will tell. In the meantime, it’s more important than ever to curate a home office that fits your needs.
The Evolution of the Home Office
Whether you have a proper home office or work at a chair in your kitchen nook, what’s important is that you create a dedicated space for your work. This allows you to focus by limiting distractions that may arise from other areas of the house. It also brings a sense of work-life balance to your home by physically separating the spaces. Even if your space is limited, design your workspace to feel like its own designated spot by facing it away from an open room or pointing your workstation toward a window.
Continued Remote Work
For those who have worked remotely and will continue to do so, you’ve likely gotten a grasp of how your home workspace can best fit your unique needs. Perhaps you decided to ditch the desk chair for a yoga ball or switched out that old desk lamp for a therapy light. But now that remote work has become your long-term reality, it’s time to think about how the space will fit your long-term needs.
Gone are the days of your home workspace being an afterthought. Working from home long-term means that your home office is now one of the most-used spaces in the house, so it’s important to keep it organized. Declutter the space with efficiency and productivity in mind, prioritizing the items that are essential for your job. We work well when we feel well, and an organized space can help reduce anxiety and work-related stress.
As your remote work continues, it may be time to make investments that you were previously on the fence about making. Whether it’s a second monitor, a supportive floor mat under your chair, a new design on your wall for your Zoom background, or a standing desk, now that you’ll be working from home for the foreseeable future, it’s important that your home office provides you with all the tools you’ll need while inspiring you to do your best work.
Returning to In-Person Work
For those whose days of a fully remote work schedule are coming to an end, your home office needs will evolve, so it’s important that the space reflects those changes.
Full-Time: Returning to in-person work full-time means your home office will be vacant for extended periods of the day. Because you won’t be using it nearly as much, you have the freedom to either keep it as is or convert the room into something else. If you’ve dreamt of having a game room, a home gym, a playroom for the kids, or creating your version of a home theater, this is the perfect opportunity to do so.
Part-Time / Hybrid / Flex: A hybrid or flex work schedule allows for flexibility with your home office. Paring down your workspace and transferring some equipment to your desk at work will help you declutter. Outfit both workspaces to fit your needs to avoid lugging equipment back and forth. For example, if one location is primarily meant for attending meetings and the other is for working on projects, you can curate each space accordingly.
The following analysis of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
The emergence of the of COVID-19 Delta variant had a palpable impact on the region’s economy, which, naturally, impacted the job recovery. Employment levels in Western Washington had been picking up steam in the spring but started to slow quite dramatically over the summer. To date, the region has recovered more than 201,000 of the jobs that were lost due to the pandemic, but we appear to be in a bit of a holding pattern. That said, the ending of enhanced unemployment benefits has led many business owners to see more applicants for open positions, so I am hopeful the numbers will pick back up as we move into the winter months. The most recent data (August) shows the region’s unemployment rate at a respectable 5%, but we still have a way to go before we reach the pre-pandemic low of 3.7%. On a county level, the lowest unemployment rate was in Kitsap County (4.4%) and the highest was in Grays Harbor County (6.6%). There are still many hurdles in front of us, but I believe we will continue to add jobs and reach full employment recovery by mid-2022.
WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME SALES
❱ Sales in the third quarter rose 6.4% year over year, with a total of 27,280 homes sold. The increase matched what we saw in the second quarter of this year.
❱ I was pleased to see sales growth continue. This rise was supported by a 28.4% increase in the number of homes for sale. Listings rose the most in Grays Harbor (+62.6%), Lewis (+53.6%), and Skagit (+52.0%) counties.
❱ Sales activity was mixed. Nine counties saw year-over-year growth, but sales slowed in six counties. That said, sales were up in every county other than King and San Juan compared to the second quarter of 2021.
❱ The ratio of pending sales (demand) to active listings (supply) showed pending sales outpacing listings by a factor of 4.6. Even with the increase in the number of new listings, the market is far from balanced.
WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME PRICES
❱ Home prices rose 18.9% compared to a year ago, with an average sale price of $726,168—another all-time record.
❱ When compared to the same period a year ago, price growth was strongest in Clallam, San Juan, and Jefferson counties, but all markets saw prices rise more than 12% from a year ago.
❱ Average sale prices pulled back 1.1% compared to the second quarter of this year. Given the massive increase in value over the past few years, it is not at all surprising. The key indicator has been a softening in list prices and that naturally translates to slower price growth. This is nothing to be worried about. It simply suggests that the market may finally be heading back to some sort of balance.
❱ Relative to the second quarter of this year, all counties except San Juan (-0.1%), Island (-0.5%), and Whatcom (-0.5%) saw higher sale prices.
DAYS ON MARKET
❱ It took an average of 17 days for a home to sell in the third quarter. This was 19 fewer days than in the same quarter of 2020, and 1 fewer day than in the second quarter of this year.
❱ Mirroring the second quarter, Snohomish, Kitsap, Thurston, and Pierce counties were the tightest markets in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of 9 days to sell in Snohomish County and 11 days in the other three counties. The greatest reduction in market time compared to a year ago was in San Juan County where it took 102 fewer days for homes to sell.
❱ All counties contained in this report saw the average time on market drop from the same period a year ago, but eight counties saw market time rise from the second quarter; however, the increases were minimal.
❱ Even with inventory levels increasing in most markets, the region’s housing market remains remarkably tight. That said, I do see some of the heat dissipating and I am hopeful that if inventory levels continue rising, we will start a slow move back toward a balanced market.
CONCLUSIONS
This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.
Even given the speedbump that hit the region’s economy with the emergence of the Delta variant, the housing market remains remarkably resilient. Demand from buyers continues to be very strong, and modestly increasing inventory levels appear to have—at least for the time being—reduced some of the fever from the market. Mortgage rates remain very favorable, and my current forecast is for them to stay in the low- to mid-3% range until next summer. Rising inventory levels have led price growth to slow and days on market to start increasing, which may be a sign that the market is retreating from a prolonged period of exuberance.
As we move through the balance of the year, I believe demand will remain solid, but we will continue to see price growth soften as more listings compete for the buyers that are out there. That is not to say price growth will turn negative; rather it suggests that we are slowly moving back toward a more balanced market. That said, the market certainly still favors home sellers. As such, I am leaving the needle in the same position as the second quarter. I may move it a little in the direction of buyers next quarter if the current trend continues through the winter months.
ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
This video is the latest in our Monday with Matthew series with Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.
Hello there! I’m Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, and welcome to the latest episode of Mondays with Matthew.
A few weeks ago, one of my viewers on You Tube sent me a note asking when I was expecting mortgage rates to start to rise and, if I believed that they were going to go up, how fast will they rise, and what impacts will higher rates have on home prices.
Well, I would like to thank this particular viewer for the question, and it’s going to be the topic of today’s video.
How Mortgage Rates Are Set
But before we start looking at the future of mortgage rates, I was speaking to some of our interns here at the office a while ago and one of them asked me to explain how mortgage rates are set and – because this is somewhat pertinent to today’s topic – I thought that I’d take just a minute or two to explain to you how this all works.
Of course, there are a lot of factors that impact the rate that a home buyer themselves will get, and they include credit quality, loan-to-value ratios and the like, but the base rate is set not by looking at a home buyer, but at the economy itself and, specifically, the bond market – and even more specifically, the interest rate of 10-year US treasuries.
Now, if you’re asking yourself why 30-year mortgages are based off 10-year bonds and not 30-year? Well, that would be a good question, and this is the answer. You see we move, on average, every 10 years and that’s why!
Here is a chart showing the average yield – or interest rate – on 10-year treasury bills by month going back to 2010 in light blue, and the average 30-year mortgage rate in dark blue. I hope that you can see the tight relationship they have to each other.
Of course, there are times when bond yields can go down and mortgage rates rise, and vice-versa but, in general, they track each other pretty closely.
And if you’re wondering why the rates aren’t simply the same, well it’s because a treasury bond has no risk – as its backed by the US government – but there is some risk associated with a mortgage, so buyers of mortgage bonds expect a premium to be added because of this risk, and this has averaged just over 1.5% since the 30-year mortgage came into being back in the early ‘70’s.
Now, there are some people out there who think that the interest rate on 10-year treasuries doesn’t set mortgage rates, rather its better to track the interest paid on mortgage bonds and, although I do see why they might think this, the base mortgage rate is actually set by treasury yields and the interest on mortgage bonds is set using that base and adjusting it to manage the prevailing risk tolerance that investors are prepared to accept so I believe that watching movements in the interest paid on 10-year treasuries is the right way to go.
And that, in essence, is how the 30-year mortgage rate is set.
The History of Mortgage Rates
If you are a regular viewer of these videos you will now that I like to start off with some context to the subject I am addressing and this chart will show the average rate for conforming 30-year fixed rate mortgages going back to their genesis in the early 1970’s.
Back in ‘71 rates were in the mid-7% range, rising to just under 10% in ‘74, before pulling back but, as you can clearly see, they started to spiral upward in ’77, ending the decade at almost 13% and if you’re wondering what led to this massive jump, well this was because the country had entered a period of high inflation.
In the ‘70s the country was pushed into a recession basically due to an oil embargo that led to the price of oil quadrupling and that led to a period of so-called stagflation which is when inflation rises, and economic activity slows.
And in the early ‘80’s we entered a period of so-called hyperinflation, as another oil embargo was took hold and the Fed was forced to step in and raised short-term rates which led rates along the yield curve to rise and this – of course – included 10-year treasuries which hit 15.3% in the fall of 1981 and that, as we have discussed, caused mortgage rates to hit an all-time high in October of 1981 at close to 18.5%. Rates then started to pull back and
In the 90’s, rates started to trend lower but jumped again in ’94 as the Fed tightened monetary policy given the significant growth that the country was seeing, but they started to pull back in the second half of the decade, falling to the mid-6’s before notching higher in ’99.
In the 2000’s, rates dropped to 5.3% in 2003 as the housing market boomed but, as we all know, it wasn’t all unicorns & rainbows in this decade of what was then – historically low rates.
The housing crash led the Fed to jump in by cutting interest rates, but they also started a massive purchase of mortgage bonds at very low interest rates as they were happy to take a low return as long as it stabilized the housing market. As a result of their efforts, mortgage rates fell almost a full percentage point, averaging just a hair above 5 % in 2009.
Riding the wave of low bank borrowing costs, mortgage rates entered the new decade around 4.7% and continued to fall steadily, dropping to the mid-3’s by 2012. But in 2013 you can see that rates headed higher. Why? Well, a big part of this has to do with some panic in the bond market, but we will get to that shortly.
Anyway, rates went up in 2014 before dropping to 3.85% in 2015 as the market calmed down.
They rose again after the 2016 presidential election, reaching their peak at the end of 2018 and start of 2019, but still ending the decade below 4%.
As for the current decade, well, it’s all been about COVID-19.
To understand what’s happened over the past couple of years, we need to look at the weekly average rate and I am sure that you have noticed the first spike in the graph.
And it was totally due to the Coronavirus which created an unprecedented situation for all rates (not just mortgages, but US Treasuries and everything else).
You see, investors were panicking during the early stages of the pandemic, not just because the country – essentially – shut down for a brief period, but there were rumors about a thing called forbearance, and investors were panicking that they would not get paid for the mortgage bonds they held, and they did what we all do when we get worried about the economy and, specifically, our investments. They get out of their investment positions and into cash and that’s absolutely what they did, but I should add that I am not talking about them stashing dollars under the mattress. No, they moved into cash positions in financial markets, which are the most liquid, nimble place an investor in the US can be.
And with a lot of institutions and individuals getting out of bonds and not many buyers out there, what happened to rates? That’s right, they rose to attract buyers and rise they did. So much so, in fact, that on a single day in March of 2020, mortgage bonds prices changed 5 times! Quite unprecedented.
Anyway, the Fed reverted to their old playbook and went on a massive bond buying spree with the biggest ever purchase of mortgage-backed securities on Thursday March 19 but, quite remarkably, they announced the very next day that they were going to buy even more. How much more, you ask… Well, they decided to buy three times more than the record purchase they made just the day before!
And because of this, rates dropped dramatically and continued to pretty much head lower for the rest of the year and into early 2021.
But then the music stopped, as you can see in the second highlighted spike in the above graph.
You see, a special election was being held in Georgia and the bond market decided to take a conservative stance prior to the election and that led rates higher again. But the election wasn’t the only reason why rates rose.
You see, COVID 19 cases that were dropping, improved vaccine distribution appeared to be in place, there were several stronger than expected economic reports released, and progress on a fiscal stimulus package. All of these factors led rates higher because, as you know, when economic news is positive, that is actually bad for bond yields as people move back into equities and out of bonds which is obviously bad for mortgage rates as bonds need to offer a higher interest rate to attract the few buyers that were out there.
Mortgage Rate Forecast
So that’s where we are today, but what of the future?
Here is my forecast for 10-Year treasuries through the end of next year and you will see that I am looking for rates to rise gradually as we move into next year and this will lead mortgage rates to start notching higher as well.
And here is my forecast for mortgage rates. Although they should move higher, I am still not seeing rates break above 4% until 2023 at the earliest and – even as they start to increase – I really don’t see it as a major deterrent to home buyers.
But before you start to say that this is only one person’s forecast and it could be wrong, lets look at my forecast compared to some of my industry colleagues.
As you can see, we are all in a pretty tight range when it comes to forecasting the average rate this year and next.
The bottom line is that although rates will rise, they will remain very competitive when compared to historic averages and the upward trend in rates is unlikely to have any significant impact on prices. That said, many markets are already having an affordability crisis and rising rates will certainly act as an additional headwind to price growth; however, it would take a significantly greater increase in rates to negatively impact prices.
Well, I hope that you have found this month’s discussion to be interesting. As always if you have any questions or comments about this topic, please do reach out to me but, in the meantime, stay safe out there and I look forward the visiting with you all again, next month.
Windermere offices across the Western U.S. have remained committed to serving their communities in 2021, collectively raising nearly $1.5 million so far this year alone, pushing the foundation’s grand total raised since 1989 to nearly $45 million. After a successful Community Service Day in June and a first half of the year which saw over $1 million raised, Windermere offices have continued to give back this summer. Here are some recent highlights from across our network.
Windermere Utah
Windermere Utah has always been deeply rooted in its community, and 2021 has been no different. This year alone, they have hosted multiple fundraisers and supported several organizations to affect positive change in their community.
One of the greatest challenges the COVID-19 pandemic has put on schoolchildren is access to technology. After searching for a way to provide digital access to local schoolchildren, Windermere Utah came across the organization Spy Hop, based in Salt Lake City. Spy Hop is a digital media arts center that provides classes in film, music, audio, and design for students between the ages of nine and nineteen. They offer mentoring and host technology drives to provide computers for students in need through a program called the Technology Liberation Project. Windermere Utah donated $3,000 to support Spy Hop’s programs while sponsoring their technology drive in August.
The office also rallied together to support Lincoln Elementary School. As a Title I school, they cannot ask for supplies or funds, often leaving them underfunded compared to other schools in the area. Windermere Utah donated $1,000 for kids to purchase the supplies they need for the school year.
From Left to Right: Misty Medina, Laurann Turner, Lincoln Elementary Rep, Shawnee Cooper, Lincoln Elementary Rep, Michelle Adkins, Chelle Preslar, Kelly Silvestor, and Stephanie Vera
Windermere Evergreen – Evergreen, CO
Windermere Evergreen has close ties to the local Rotary Wildfire Ready program and given the prevalence of wildfires across the Western U.S. in recent years, the office was inspired to tap their Foundation resources to support local wildfire relief efforts. John Putt–managing broker at Windermere Evergreen—is a member of the Rotary Wildfire Ready leadership council. A former paramedic and firefighter, he is passionate about providing resources and education to mountain communities regarding wildfire preparedness. After trying to come up with ways to support the program, they settled on a classic method of bringing the community together—a good old tailgate party. The office donated $1,000 to support the Rotary Wildfire Ready program, and the first annual Windermere Foundation Tailgate Party saw members of the community come together from all corners of town.
The Evergreen, Colorado Rotary Wildfire Ready firetruck.
Windermere Spokane – Spokane, WA
After hosting a blood drive earlier this year, Windermere Spokane has continued to find ways they can provide for those in need in their community. In early September, they turned their attention toward Spokane’s youth. When they saw the Spokane branch of Volunteers of America announce that they were planning to move their Crosswalk Youth Shelter across town to a new facility, the office jumped at the opportunity to help. Windermere Spokane held a matching fundraiser that ultimately raised over $21,000 for the new shelter. But the office’s recent foundation efforts didn’t stop there.
In preparation for the new school year, the office held their Spokane Sock and Shoe Event to support local low-income and homeless grade school-aged kids with new pairs of shoes and socks. This year’s event provided new shoes and socks for 116 kids.
Left to Right: Windermere agents Blythe Thimsen and Brenda McKinley
Windermere agent Brenda McKinley
Kritsonis Lindor Team — Windermere Bellevue South – Bellevue, WA
Windermere agents John Kritsonis and Karl Lindor of Kritsonis Lindor have been strong supporters of the Issaquah Food & Clothing Bank in years past, but the continued challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic made it clear that the IFCB needed their support more than ever. After food insecurity for children in their county jumped 54% in 2020, John and Karl knew they had to go all-in for their community. They doubled down on their fundraising campaign with a $25,000 match, ultimately raising $55,958. On August 20, their team spent the day volunteering at the food bank, putting together produce bags, and passing out groceries to families. All in all, they were able to provide groceries to over 120 families and over 350 kids. Their donations will support IFCB’s summer lunch program, which feeds roughly 300 children weekly during the summer.
To learn more about the Windermere Foundation, visit windermerefoundation.com.
The more competitive the housing market, the greater the lengths buyers will go to to make themselves stand out amongst the competition. Making an all-cash offer is one such way a buyer can differentiate themselves. In a seller’s market, listings commonly receive multiple offers, often over their original asking price. This will typically lead to bidding wars between buyers, and all-cash offers will often enter the fold. Keep the following information in mind if you’re thinking about making an all-cash offer on a house.
Making an All-Cash Offer on a House
What is an all-cash offer?
When a buyer makes an all-cash offer, it means they have the funds available to purchase the house in a liquid account and won’t need to secure a home loan. Once the buyer has shown they have enough cash to make the purchase, they will put down an earnest money deposit. The remaining amount they owe will typically be wire transferred at a later date.
Whereas financed offers are tied to an approval process with a lender, all-cash offers are not because the buyer has already proven they have the amount required to purchase the property on-hand. This can create a less risky and more streamlined selling process, which sellers may view as favorable.
How do I make an all-cash offer on a house?
First, there’s the question of how to organize the funds you’ll use to make your all-cash offer. Though it is not required, lumping your cash together into one account may help to simplify the offer process. This way, when it’s time to show the seller a bank statement proving you have the necessary funds for the purchase, you won’t have to spend additional time tracking down money from multiple accounts.
Once you’ve found the house you’d like to purchase, work closely with your agent to formulate an offer. Knowing that you’re prepared to make an all-cash offer bodes well for negotiations. Your agent may use the guaranteed money and quick closing times as leverage for driving down the price of the offer. You’ll also be able to handpick your contingencies, which can further sweeten the deal for the seller. This may come in handy in a highly competitive market, where simply making an all-cash offer may not be enough to win out. After the offer has been agreed upon and signed by both parties, it’s on to escrow and closing. All-cash offers often lead to quick sales with short closing times. So, it may only be a matter of days before you have the deed to your new home in hand.
Image Source: Getty Images
What are the pros and cons of all-cash offers?
Pros: All-cash offers essentially cut out the middleman from the buying process, allowing you to purchase a home without intervention from a lender. You’ll also save on the closing costs that would have stemmed from securing a loan. The closing process will be shorter, which can be helpful for both buyers and sellers who are looking to move quickly. Additionally, an all-cash offer may be the antidote for navigating the challenges of a highly competitive market by increasing your buying power and giving your agent leverage when approaching negotiations.
Cons: The greatest drawback with making an all-cash offer is self-explanatory—you will have less cash available to you once the purchase goes through. This means you’ll be cutting into your reserves for the myriad of expenses that come with homeownership. Before proceeding with an all-cash offer, make sure you’ve properly budgeted for closing costs, taxes, repairs, and any remodeling projects you have in mind.
All of us at Windermere Real Estate are proud to kick off another season as the “Official Real Estate Company of the Seattle Seahawks.” Since 2016, we’ve partnered with the Seahawks to #TackleHomelessness by donating $100 for every Seahawks defensive tackle made in a home game. And for the third season in a row, the money raised will go to Mary’s Place, a non-profit organization dedicated to supporting homeless families in the greater Seattle area. Mary’s Place works to provide safe and inclusive shelter and services that support women, children, and families through their journey out of homelessness.
Mary’s Place’s mission and the work of the Windermere Foundation go hand-in hand. Last year, we were able to donate $32,100 which brought our #TackleHomelessness total to $160,300 donated over the past five seasons. We look forward to raising even more this year!
Interested in following along with our progress this season? Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and LinkedIn for updates. Go Hawks!
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